Nifty story1/9/2024 ![]() ![]() ![]() The chart below is from the Leuthold Group. Investment newsletter writers have been cautious too, even though the optimism is starting to improve. Gallup didn’t ask this question during that period but did find in April 2008 that 62%, near the record high, thought it was a bad time to invest in the stock market.” Commenting on its findings, Gallup noted, “It is possible Americans would have been even more pessimistic than now about the stock market during the Great Recession and financial crisis, when stocks lost much more value than they did in 2022. This January survey from Gallup confirms what the AAII Sentiment Survey and others showed over the past several months: More people expect stocks to fall than to rise. Lots of Pessimism, but Pendulum Could Be Swinging Back As one bar and grill said on its sign, “the Powerball jackpot is up to 8 dozen eggs.” Egg prices were up 70% on a year-over-year basis and increased 8.5% in January 2023 relative to January 2022. HedgeyeStaples noted that meat, poultry, fish and egg prices continued to rise in December 2022. It’s Still Painful to Go to the Grocery Store The chart below shows that the five-year inflation expectations are priced in by the bond market as of February 14, 2023. The data is messy, but in general, the bond market has become less fearful about inflation staying at high levels since last summer. When the chart is on a publicly accessible webpage with more context provided, I include the link.įederal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is looking for signs of disinflation kicking in. Rather than letting those charts be buried in my email inbox or my browser history, my intention is to start sharing the insightful ones. A few make their way into my commentaries but many interesting ones don’t simply because they don’t match the topic I’m writing about. As part of my role, I come across many charts, tables and infographics conveying data about investing, the economy and personal finance.
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